Great Pacific War Replay
1939 Campaign Scenario
Part 12: Fall and Winter 1943
By Doug McNair
February 2008

The Allies try to regain the initiative against Japan in today’s episode of my Great Pacific War replay. Last time, the Imperial Japanese Navy defeated the U.S. Navy and the Red Air Force in the Sea of Okhotsk, cutting the supply line to the U.S. Marines at the port of Otamari. That and the consequent surrender of the Marines dashed U.S. hopes of building airbases on the Karafuto peninsula to launch massive strategic bombing raids on Japanese objective cities. But the Soviet Union declared war on Japan and conquered the Manchukuo province of Heilungchang, and Britain’s invasion of Siam began to show progress against the Japanese army there. Only recurring Allied BRP shortages stand in the way of continued British and Soviet gains before the end of 1943.

The war continues . . .

Turn 17: Fall 1943

Production Segment: Nobody but the Netherlands builds any units, saving their BRPs until winter in case disaster strikes. The Netherlands spends 4 BRPs to rebuild her 2 SUB in the Britain box.

No new chits go in the political cup, and the chit drawn is INDIAN NATIONAL ARMY. Indian rebels armed and funded by Japanese agents take advantage of Britain’s massive troop commitments elsewhere to rise against the British Raj (can you say disaster?). There must be a British (not Indian or ANZAC) 3-4 INF unit in Calcutta and Bombay in every Spring Production Segment hereafter or Britain will lose 35 BRPs at that time. Britain needs to pull her 3-4 INF out of Siam and build another one next turn and SR it to India immediately, or she’ll be at a major disadvantage in 1944. This is doubly good for Japan because it means the Soviet Union will get few or no BRPs from Britain before the end of the year.

The Chinas and the U.S. buy one impulse chit each, and Japan buys two. Britain has just 8 BRPs left and will doubtless lose a few to Japanese SUB raids this turn, and she must have at least 4 BRPs in her stockpile by next turn’s Production Segment or lose 35 BRPs in the Spring. The Soviet Union has just 1 BRP in her stockpile and can’t purchase any chits.

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: The Netherlands spends 3 BRPs to put units in the Java Sea control box. The U.S. spends 5 BRPs to put TAC units in the Sulu Sea, Marianas Islands, Wake Island and Hawaiian Islands sea control boxes, and Japan spends 5 BRPs to put units in all the usual sea control boxes plus the Philippine Sea (now that she has Legaspi) and the Sea of Okhotsk (to intercept the 8 SURF remaining at Otamari if it makes a run for it). Then the U.S. sends 2 SUB from Guam to the Yellow Sea Raiding box, and Japan sends 7 SUB to the Raiding boxes of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Straits of Malacca.

Declaration of War Segment: All nations are at war.

Sea Control and Raiding Segment: The American 3-4 TAC unit that’s now operating out of the British port of Sandakar takes on a Japanese 2-4 TAC and 4 CV in the Sulu Sea. The Americans do extremely well, surviving three rounds of naval combat and losing just one TAC factor while sinking 2 CV. The sea zone remains contested, which is very annoying to the Japanese as it will block SRs to Davao or landings on the east coast of Borneo.

Then in raiding neither side scores any hits in the Yellow Sea, but the Japanese SUBs destroy 4 British BRPs in the waters off India and Burma.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: The Chinas and the Soviet Union leave their units in place. The British SR their 3-4 INF out of Siam and up to Bombay, and send a 3-3 African INF from Madras down to Siam to take its place. The Mediterranean is open again for SR as of this turn, so the Dutch SR their 2 SUB from the Britain box to the Middle East box. The U.S. uses the cover provided by the 2-4 TAC unit in the Sulu Sea to SR her 6 SURF out of Leyte to the safety of Pearl Harbor, uses an LC to stage a 3-4 INF forward from Midway to Truk while sending the 1-0 GAR on Truk back to Midway, and finally sends Britain 3 BRPs. Japan SRs her 3-5 ARM unit from the Philippines to Bangkok, 2 x 2-3 INF from the Philippines to the Kuching beachhead on Borneo along with an LC, a 2-3 INF one hex forward from the Kuching beachhead to make room, 9 SURF from Paramushiro to Darien on the Manchukuo coast, and a 1 CV from Paramushiro to the Kure shipyards.

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is . . .

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: Mao redeploys his depleted troops along the line but doesn’t attack because he’s got just 2 BRPs left and can’t afford the BRP loss.

The next chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE ATTRITION: Japanese infantry attack northward from Bangkok with air support.

The 11-die-to-7 attack does extremely well, scoring three hits on offense to destroy the British 2-5 ARM division while the surviving African 3-3 INF voluntarily retreats one hex northward to save a British BRP. The Brits score only one hit on defense to kill a Japanese BRP. The Japanese advance into the vacated hex.

The next chit drawn is . . .

NATIONALIST CHINA ATTRITION: Kuomintang armies make a 4-die-to-1 attack on the weak Japanese left flank but neither side scores any hits.

The next chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE ATTRITION: The Japanese form the best line they can in northern Manchukuo and then count on the 9 SURF in Darien to SR enough units in next turn to lengthen and strengthen the line.

The last chit drawn is . . .

U.S. NAVAL: The American 8 SURF that survived the Battle of Otamari makes a run for it, and the Japanese 5 SURF and 4 CV waiting for them in the Sea of Okhotsk engage.

The superior Japanese force sinks 3 American SURF, but the Americans fight very well and score two hits to sink 2 Japanese SURF. Then the remaining American 6 SURF sails down to Wake Island and the American carriers in the Hawaiian Islands do the same, and the entire force of 15 SURF, 11 CV, 2 LC, a 4-4 MAR and a 3-4 INF sail for Marcus Island. The Japanese 4 SUB lurking in the Marcus Island sea control box engages and tries to torpedo the LCs, but it scores no hits and the American escorts lay waste to the subs. The combined Marine and Army force hits the beach at Marcus, and the 21-die-to-2 attack scores 4 hits to wipe-out the Japanese garrison and take Marcus Island for America. But the 1-0 GAR and 1-3 INF division fight to the last man, scoring 2 hits on 2 dice to reduce the American INF unit before it lands. One LC is lost in the landing, but the other LC remains at Marcus along with 6 SURF and 4 CV while 9 SURF retire to Wake and 7 CV retire to Pearl.

Supply and End Segments: All units are in supply and America lets her reduced 2-3 INF on Marcus sit tight because the Japanese don’t have landing craft within range for a counter-invasion. The Japanese remove the beachhead marker just northwest of Legaspi. All units in sea zone boxes return to base and the turn ends.

Turn 18: Winter 1943

Production Segment: The U.S. receives the 9 SURF and 4 CV she built this spring in the U.S. West Coast box. The Soviet Union rolls a 6 for a standard Russian Winter, which reduces the movement allowance of all Soviet units that are still inside the Russian border. Britain combines the two 1-4 INF divisions in her stockpile into a British 3-4 INF unit and builds it in the Britain box for 4 BRPs. Japan builds a 1-0 GAR unit, but everyone else holds onto the BRPs they’ve got. For the first time ever, nobody scraps any naval units!

No new political chits go in the cup, and the chit drawn is NO EFFECT. Communist China and the U.S. buy one impulse chit each and Japan buys three.

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: The Netherlands spends 3 BRPs to put 2 SURF in the Java Sea and a 1-4 TAC in the Sulu Sea control box. The U.S. spends her last 3 BRPs to put a 1-4 TAC in the Marianas Islands sea control box and 2 CV in the Marcus Island sea control box (to deal with any SUBs that try to stop the next U.S. island hop). Japan spends 5 BRPs to put units in most of the usual sea control boxes but sends all her subs to raid British BRPs in the waters off India.

Sea Control and Raiding Segment: The only contested sea zone is the Sulu Sea, where on the third combat round the Japanese 2-4 TAC shoots down the Dutch 1-4 TAC. The Japanese subs do poorly, destroying just 2 British BRPs to leave Britain with 1 BRP in her stockpile. That means British units won’t be subject to automatic reduction if they’re hit in combat (at least until Britain loses her last BRP).

Strategic Redeployment Segment: The Soviet Union SRs her 1 FEF HQ up to Blagoveschensk so it can take command of the northern offensive. Britain spends 2 SRs to send the British 3-4 INF from the Britain box through the port of Madras to Calcutta (taking care of the Indian National Army requirement), and spends her last 2 SRs to send her 4-5 ARM unit from the Britain box to the hex southeast of Rangoon. Holland SRs her 2 SUB from the Middle East box to Batavia, and the U.S. uses an LC at Hilo to have the 1-4 INF division there and the 1-3 PARA division at Dutch Harbor trade places. The 9 SURF in the U.S. West Coast box then sends another 1-3 PARA division from there to Guam. Finally Japan SRs four units off Kyushu through the port of Sasebo to Darien and up to the lines in Manchukuo.

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE NAVAL: The Japanese 3 CV and 3 SURF at Yokohama sail down to Marcus Island to try and sink the U.S. landing craft there, and the American 2 CV in the Marcus Island sea zone box engages.

The Zeroes do a masterful job, scoring two hits to down 2 BRPs worth of American carrier planes and driving America’s stockpile down below zero. The American fighters off the 2 CV in the sea control box score no hits and neither do those off the 2 CV in port at

Marcus, but Japanese torpedo bombers destroy the 1 LC unit there plus a U.S. CV factor. The force then returns to Yokohama.

Japan was planning on invading Singapore with the invasion force gathered at Kuching on Borneo, but the Japanese SUBs failed to do their job of driving the British BRP stockpile down to zero. Had they succeeded it would only take 3 hits to reduce the 1-0 GAR and 3-4 INF guarding Singapore, but with Britain’s stockpile at a positive number it takes five hits to do that (unlikely with the forces Japanese has available) So instead, 11 SURF from Paramushiro and Bangkok plus 6 CV from Japan and Legaspi rendezvous with the 2 LC and 2 x 3 INF at Kuching, and sail around the north end of Borneo to land at the Dutch Borneo capital of Balikpapan.

The British harbor defense force of 1 SURF scores no hits and is blown away by the Japanese surface escort, and then the Japanese army hits the beach. The 17-die-to-3 attack scores 3 hits to wipe out the British and Dutch defenders and seize the capital, and the defenders score one hit before dying to reduce a landing Japanese INF unit. Neither of the LCs is lost, and they retire to Manila and Davao (to SR units there from Japan next turn). 3 SURF and 4 CV remain at Balikpapan, 2 CV disperse to Japanese shipyards for upgrades and 8 SURF return to Bangkok and reunite with the Siamese 1 SURF there. Japan scores a very nice prize which will increase her BRP take by 9 next turn, and she’s now got a decent naval force to deal with pesky American and Dutch resistance in the Java and Sulu Seas.

The next chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE ATTRITION: The KWAN HQ advances north from Bangkok with the 3-5 ARM crashing through the jungles behind, and then 2 x 3-3 INF plus a 3-4 TAC from Bangkok attack the Indian INF and the British HQ southeast of Rangoon.

The 9-die-to-3 attack scores just one hit to none, which is enough to eliminate the last British BRP.

The next chit drawn is . . .

U.S. NAVAL: A force of 7 CV and 15 SURF from Pearl Harbor and Wake Island make for Yokohama to attack the Japanese carriers there. The Japanese force in the Pacific Ocean 7 sea control box engages:

Neither side scores any hits in naval air battle, but the American attack planes are devastating, scoring five hits to wipe-out the entire Japanese surface force of 3 SURF and 2 CV. But the Japanese pilots give their all, scoring two hits to sink two American CV while the Japanese SURF score another hit to sink an American SURF factor. Then the carrier planes hit Yokohama and outdo themselves, scoring 3 hits on 5 dice to wipe out the entire 3 CV unit there! The American forces return to their home ports, and the Yokohama Raid goes down in history as the most successful American carrier action to date.

Then the 1 LC at Truk takes an INF unit north from Guam and lands it on Saipan, taking the island port and airbase at Garapan from the Japanese. The Americans roll a 1 and the LC is lost, but they now have three airbases (Marcus, Saipan and Guam) that will be within long-range LSAC or SAC range of Japanese objective cities starting in Spring 1944.

The next chit drawn is . . .

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: The Soviet Union’s entry into the war has dried up Mao’s BRP flow, and with his lines already thin he can’t afford to take any losses. So he just keeps his units in place.

The last chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE ATTRITION: The elite Japanese infantry facing the bulge between the rivers northwest of Hankow attack at 12 dice to four (including air support from both sides) and destroy a 2-2 INF unit. But Mao’s men fight fanatically for the workers, scoring three hits on four dice to reduce a Japanese 3-3 INF. Another INF advances into the breach.

Supply and End Segments: All units are in supply and Japan spends 2 BRPs to repair her reduced INF in China. She has 1 BRP left in her stockpile and gets 1 BRP of economic growth, while America’s BRP stockpile is at -2 and will thus reduce her BRP production next turn. All units return to base, and the turn ends.

So at the end of 1943, Japan has conquered Borneo and is hitting back hard at the Brits, but the Yokohama Raid has devastated her homeland coastal defense forces. Japanese shipyard workers will need to work around the clock to restore the 5 SURF and 5 CV lost to the raid or risk losing Japan’s carrier advantage, which is what gives her the crucial ability to place units in sea zone boxes last. Japanese SUBs will need to be pulled from raiding duty to defend the Japanese coast, so pressure on Britain’s BRP stockpile will lift and thus free-up BRPs for transfer to the Soviet Union. That will let the Soviets build more units and purchase more impulse chits, which will increase the need for Japan to build lots of ground units and SR them up to the lines in Manchukuo. And America’s capture of Saipan and construction of an airbase on Marcus means that Japan can expect to have her cities bombed in 1944 in addition to the usual submarine raids.

So, while Japan has made slow but steady gains thus far, all the signs are pointing to a sharp reversal for her next year. Will the Rising Sun begin to set in 1944? Tune in next time and find out!

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