Great Pacific War Replay
1939 Campaign Scenario
Part 15: Fall-Winter 1944
By Doug McNair
February 2008

The U.S. Navy bets everything on a showdown in the Bismarck Sea while Japan fights to keep her Asian empire in today’s episode of my Great Pacific War replay.

As summer 1944 ended, the Imperial Japanese Army narrowly averted disaster in Siam but was far from out of the woods, while the IJA forces in Manchukuo dug in for another Soviet armored offensive. The United States began the strategic bombing of Japan but discovered that “Shock and Awe” doesn’t work when the enemy has ways to strike back. The Imperial Japanese Navy sailed south to the Bismarck Sea, destroying the American naval forces guarding the supply line to Mindanao and capturing the port of Hollandia. That will let them cut the supply line to the U.S. Army on Mindanao in the upcoming turn, and only a massive commitment of Allied air and naval forces to the Bismarck Sea followed by an Allied victory there this winter will save the U.S. Army units on Mindanao from permanent elimination.

The war continues . . .

Turn 21: Fall 1944

Production Segment: The U.S. builds an LC at Apra Harbor for 3 BRPs. Japan builds a 1-4 TAC plus a 2-3 INF for 6 BRPs.

No new political chits go in the cup, and the chit drawn is JAPAN FIRST! Remembering the brave but doomed stand of the U.S. Army on Luzon, the American public recoils at the prospect of another American defeat on Mindanao. They demand that all possible resources be devoted to defeating Japan before Germany. The U.S. BRP Base will go up by 90 in the Spring 1945 production segment, and Stalin (who was counting on a quick American victory in Europe after the D-Day landings) has to withdraw a 3-3 INF from Manchukuo and send it to Europe. The U.S. also adds several new units to her force pool, and she might actually be able to build some of them come spring. . . .

The Chinas, the Soviet Union, Britain and the U.S. buy one impulse chit each, and Japan buys two.

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: The Netherlands spends 1 BRP to put her last 1 SURF in the Java Sea (to get a supply line to the brave ANZACs defending the Dutch port of Pontianak on Borneo). Britain spends 1 BRP to put her 1-4 TAC out of Wewak in the Solomon Islands sea control box. The U.S. spends 5 BRPs to put another 3 TAC in the Solomon Islands zone so Japan won’t have a 4-1 advantage in the Bismarck Sea/Solomon Islands zone border hex at Wewak, plus more units in the Marianas Islands, Marcus Island, Wake Island, Hawaiian Islands and Aleutian Islands zones.

Japan spends 5 BRPs to put units in all the usual sea control boxes (except for the Sea of Japan, which has no shipyards for scrapping later) and the whole Hollandia naval force and extra SUBs from Japan in the Bismarck Sea. Then the U.S. puts 5 SUB from Wake Island in the undefended Sea of Japan raiding box.

Sea Control and Raiding Segment: In the Java Sea, the Dutch 1 SURF scores a hit and sinks a Japanese CV factor, but the Japanese score a hit and sink the SURF, leaving a Japanese 1 CV there to control the sea zone and cut the supply line of the ANZACs at Pontianak. No other sea zones are contested. Then the U.S. 5 SUB raids the Sea of Japan and does very well, destroying 3 Japanese BRPs to leave Japan with just 1 BRP in her stockpile.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: Japan SRs all possible units up to the lines in Manchukuo. The Soviet Union SRs a 1-3 INF closer to the front and a 1-0 GAR from Blagoveschensk to the Manchukuo provincial capital of Tsishar. Britain SRs a 2-4 TAC from Brisbane up to Wewak on the Bismarck Sea coast, uses an LC to SR 2 x 2-3 ANZAC INF from Broome up through Rangoon and down into Siam to protect British supply lines, and finally SRs a 2 CV from the Middle East box to Rabaul. The U.S. spends 2 SRs each (to SR units through contested waters) to send 9 SURF, 4 CV and 3 CV to Wewak, and spends her last SR to have a 9 SURF SR itself and a 4-4 MAR unit from the U.S. West Coast box to Marcus Island.

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is . . .

BRITISH 14TH HQ OFFENSIVE: The British 4-5 ARM, the African 3-3 INF and the 3-4 TAC out of Rangoon attack the reduced, unsupplied Japanese ARM and INF unit clinging to the coast, while 2 x Indian 3-4 INF move south to attack the Japanese 2-3 INF guarding the northern approaches to Bangkok. The Japanese commit defensive air support to try and save the unsupplied ARM and INF unit.

Neither side scores any hits in air battle, and the 10-die-to-three attack scores two hits to none and permanently destroys the unsupplied Japanese 3-5 ARM and 3-3 INF unit. The British ARM and INF advance into the vacated hex and can move one beyond it since there are no Japanese units adjacent, occupying the airbase town of Tavoy and thus forcing the Japanese 3-4 TAC to land at Bangkok. The six-die-to-two attack on the Japanese 2-3 INF north of Bangkok scores no hits on offense but one hit on defense, destroying a British BRP. The 4-5 ARM advances southeast in exploitation movement and attacks the 2-3 INF in exploitation combat, but neither side scores any hits. The 3-4 TAC from Rangoon lands at Tavoy.

NATIONALIST CHINA ATTRITION: A Kuomintang army charges southwest to recapture the Yunnan Province capital of Tengcheung, and a four-die-to-one attack destroys another Japanese 1-3 INF unit to further shred the Japanese left flank.

JAPANESE ATTRITION: The Japanese Army pulls back and reforms its left flank in China and tells the Imperial High Command to get them reinforcements ASAP or Hanoi will fall to the Kuomintang.

The next chit drawn is . . .

U.S. AIR EFFORT: 2 x 5-12 LSAC from Saipan and Guam perform strategic bombing against Osaka and Yokohama, and the 5-8 SAC out of Marcus Island bombs Tokyo.

There are no intercepts (Japan had to commit her TAC to sea control duty along the Japanese coast since so many of her CV and SURF factors are down in the Bismarck Sea), but the relatively green bomber crews overshoot some of their targets and score just three hits on Osaka, one hit on Yokohama and one hit on Tokyo. They destroy a total of 5 Japanese BRPs which takes Japan’s stockpile down to -4, but it could have been much, much worse.

The next chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE ATTRITION: Japan was really hoping to draw this chit AFTER the Soviets attacked (to pull back and reform the line), but since that’s not happening they redeploy units along the line in China and attack Mao’s center. Both sides commit air support but Japan downs the Chinese TAC in air battle, and the 10-die-to-two attack scores a very impressive three hits to wipe out a Chinese 1-0 GAR and 1-2 INF. The Japanese recross the Yangtse, which is very good news because if Japan can drive Mao’s armies north to the mountains of Shensi Province, it will let her shorten her lines there and lengthen her flank down to Hanoi.

The next chit drawn is . . .

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: Mao pulls his lines back to protect the provincial capital of Sian.

The last chit drawn is . . .

SOVIET UNION 1 FEF HQ OFFENSIVE: The loss of the 3-3 INF to the JAPAN FIRST chit saps Soviet strength, but with the Japanese BRP stockpile below zero all Japanese units that take hits must be reduced or eliminated. So Japan blankets the Japanese lines in red and makes a 14-die-to-six line attack just east of the Manchuko provincial capital of Shemyan.

The tanks score no hits but the infantry and cavalry perform brilliantly, scoring four hits to wipe out a 2-3 and a 1-3 Japanese INF and reduce a 3-3 INF and force it to retreat. The overwhelmed Japanese score no hits on defense, but Soviet attacks along the edges of the breach are less successful and only eliminate a Japanese 1-5 ARM division. Then the Soviet 3-5 ARM and 2-4 CAV use exploitation movement and wipe out the fleeing, reduced Japanese INF in exploitation combat. The Japanese left flank in Manchukuo is now all but cut off (they won’t be able to SR south since the Soviets are adjacent to the coastal hex), and the port of Darien where the 9 SURF has been SR-ing in units from Japan is in danger of capture.

Supply and End Segments: The reduced ANZAC INF at Pontianak has no supply line due to the defeat of the Dutch SURF in the Java Sea, so it is eliminated permanently (Britain also voluntarily removes the LC there so it can be built elsewhere). The American 2 x 3-4 INF on Mindanao also have no supply line due to sole Japanese control of the Bismarck Sea and are reduced. All other units are in supply and none need repair, so units in sea zone boxes return to base and the turn ends. The American 3-4 TAC in the Solomon Islands sea zone (originally from Truk) lands at Wewak and the British 1-4 TAC there lands at Rabaul, giving the Allies more TAC for the upcoming sea control battle in the Bismarck Sea.

BRP STOCKPILE AT END OF TURN

• Nationalist China: 0
• Communist China: 1
• Netherlands: 1
• Soviet Union: 3
• Britain: 4
• U.S.: 14
• Japan: -4

Turn 22: Winter,1944

Production Segment: No units are in Russia or will be this turn so the weather there doesn’t matter. Nobody builds any units, but Japan permanently scraps 8 SURF at Japanese shipyards in exchange for 11 BRPs, which brings her stockpile back up from negative territory to 7. No new political chits go in the cup, and the chit drawn is NO EFFECT.

Neither China has enough BRPs to buy an impulse chit, and Japan, the Soviet Union, Britain and the U.S. each buy one chit.

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: Britain can’t go on the offensive in Siam if her BRP stockpile is at zero (any hits she took would reduce or eliminate her units), so she spends one of her last two BRPs to put a 1-4 TAC in the Bismarck Sea zone. The U.S. spends 5 BRPs to put her entire force from Wewak plus 5 SUB from Marcus Island in the Bismarck Sea control box, and puts units in all the other usual sea zones. Then Japan spends her last 5 BRP to ring Japan and the Philippines with protection and put her entire force from Hollandia plus all Japanese SUBS in the Bismarck Sea zone. No units go in raiding boxes.

Sea Control and Raiding Segment: The Battle of the Bismarck Sea begins, with the lifeline to the U.S. Army on Mindanao as the prize. Japanese 5 CV, 7 SURF and 12 SUB take on Allied 7 CV, 4 TAC, 9 SURF and 5 SUB.

Round One: The Americans score one hit to none in naval air battle to destroy a Japanese BRP. Then in naval battle the Japanese torpedo bombers score one hit to sink an American CV factor, the Japanese SURF score no hits and the SUBs score two hits to sink two U.S. CV factors. The Allied CV and TAC units score two hits to sink two Japanese CV factors, but the SURF does extremely well, scoring three hits to sink three Japanese SURF. The American subs score no hits.

Round Two: The Americans score one hit to none in naval air battle to kill another Japanese BRP. Then in naval combat the Japanese carrier planes continue to miss the mark, scoring no hits. The Japanese SURF scores one hit to sink an American SURF factor, but the SUBs continue to make the Bismarck Sea a living hell and score three hits to sink three U.S. CV factors. The Allied CVs and TAC score one hit to sink one Japanese CV factor, the SURF scores two hits to sink two Japanese SURF, and the SUBs score one hit to sink another Japanese CV factor.

Round Three: Neither side scores any hits in naval air battle (the fighters are blinded by smoke from burning ships . . . ), and the Japanese 1 CV scores one hit to sink the last American CV factor, the 2 SURF scores another hit to sink an American SURF factor and the 12 SUB score one last hit to sink another SURF factor. But the British and American TAC score a total of three hits to sink the last Japanese CV and 2 SUB, the 8 SURF scores three hits to sink the last two Japanese SURF and one SUB, and that leaves nothing above sea level for the American SUBs to shoot at! The Allies win the Battle of the Bismarck Sea and gain sole control over the zone (SUBs do not count for sea control), re-establishing the lifeline to the U.S. Army on Mindanao.

But it was a very costly battle . . .

LOSSES

• American: 7 CV and 3 SURF.
• Japanese: 5 CV, 7 SURF and 3 SUB.

TOTAL NAVAL FORCES REMAINING

• American: 5 CV, 22 SURF, 5 SUB, 4 LCs
• Japanese: 13 CV, 17 SURF, 9 SUB, 1 LC

So it looks like the 90 BRP boost America gets next Spring will have to go toward rebuilding the U.S. Navy.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: Japan SRs ground units into the best defensive line possible under the circumstances in Manchukuo, SRs a 1-3 PARA division by air from Japan to the port of Darien and SRs a 3-4 TAC by air from Bangkok to Fusan on the Sea of Japan. Britain spends 2 SRs to move 2 SUB from the Britain box to Batavia, and another 2 SRs to move a Dutch 1-4 TAC from the Britain box by sea through Madras and then by air down to Tavoy. The U.S. uses LCs to stage units westward, sending a 3-4 INF and a 1-3 PARA division from Guam to the Mindanao beachhead, a 3-4 INF and a 2-6 ARM division from Wake Island to Guam, and a 1-3 PARA division from Hilo to Wake.

The first chit drawn is . . .

BRITISH ATTRITION: The British 4-5 ARM overruns the Japanese beachhead northwest of Bangkok, and then all the Commonwealth units attack the Japanese 2-3 INF guarding the northern approaches to Bangkok. They wipe out the unit, which scores one hit before dying to destroy the last British BRP. The Brits then mass outside Bangkok, while the British HQ stays to the north so that it is within range of the Rangoon supply line and can extend it down through the jungle to Bangkok.

The next chit drawn is . . .

U.S. AIR EFFORT: American SAC and LSAC hit the same targets as last turn, and the bomber crews improve, scoring one hit on Osaka, four hits on Yokohama and two hits on Tokyo to destroy 7 Japanese BRPs. That puts Japan’s stockpile down to -9!

The next chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE ATTRITION: The one-time Japanese left flank in Manchukuo dives through the one hex remaining to them along the coast before the Soviets can close it off, and other units pull back to reinforce the line.

The last chit drawn is . . .

SOVIET ATTRITION: Soviet forces advance and attack the capital of Liaoning Province at Shemyang, scoring 4 hits to capture it and destroy a Japanese 1-3 INF. The Japanese score one hit on defense to destroy the last Soviet BRP.

Supply and End Segments: The Allied victory in the Bismarck Sea cuts the supply line to the Japanese 3-3 INF at Hollandia, which fails its Bushido roll and is reduced. All other units are in supply, and the Americans spend 2 BRPs to repair their two reduced INF units on Mindanao. Japan ends the year with a BRP stockpile of -9, so she’ll lose nine BRPs in the upcoming Spring Production Segment. The U.S. ends the year with 2 BRPs in her stockpile so she gets 2 x .6 = 1.2 rounded up to 2 BRPs in economic growth. All units in sea zone boxes return to base, and the turn ends.

At the end of 1944, Japan has blunted the Red Army’s advance and is still clinging to Bangkok, and while she suffered a major defeat in the Bismarck Sea she managed to lure the U.S. Navy into a feeding frenzy of sub attacks that destroyed more than half of America’s carrier forces.

This plus the long, slow bleeding of American SURF forces puts the U.S. Navy at a distinct disadvantage going into 1945. It will be tough for it to support any new amphibious landings or maintain supply lines to new beachheads in the face of Japanese counterattacks. So at least until winter 1945 (when new naval builds will become available), America will have to rely on the Army, Marines and Air Corps to reconquer the Philippines and create an invasion route to Taiwan, Okinawa and Japan, while keeping up the pressure on Japan’s economy with continued bombing and sub raids.

But Japan’s carrier superiority will make it easy for her to disrupt American SRs by sinking SURF and LC units, so if the Allies are going to win this war by the end of the game in summer 1946, it may fall to the Soviet Union (which gets a major BRP and force pool upgrade in 1945) to strike the death blow. Will Stalin turn Japan red? Tune in next time and find out!

Play your own scenario. Order Great Pacific War TODAY!