Great Pacific War Replay
1939 Campaign Scenario
Part 3: Fall and Winter 1940
By Doug McNair
January 2008

Japan tries to finish the war in China so she can turn her attention overseas in today’s episode of my Great Pacific War 1939 campaign scenario replay. See Part 1 here.

As summer 1940 came to a close, the right flank of the Kuomintang armies in southern China had been routed by a persistent Japanese offensive. But Mao’s armies are giving as good as they’ve gotten in the North, so the Japanese will have to commit resources to deal with them as well before they can begin their attack on the Western colonial powers.

It would be good to start the war against Britain before the Royal Navy can use its newly-arrived 9 SURF unit to SR significant reinforcements to the British colonies in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific islands. But that must be balanced against the huge boost a declaration of war against Britain would give to the United States’ BRP base at the start of 1941.

The war continues.

Turn 5: Fall 1940

Production Segment: Japan receives the 4 CV she purchased in Winter, 1939. Nationalist China is now at zero BRPs and can’t build any units, while the Netherlands has no units in her force pool to build. Communist China spends 2 BRPs and builds a 1-2 INF. Britain and the U.S. both save their BRPs in case war breaks out, and Japan rebuilds the 2-3 army that Mao destroyed for 3 BRPs.

No new political chits go in the cup, and the chit drawn is IJA INFLUENCE. The heroic sacrifice of the armies that died fighting Mao give the Imperial Japanese Army the fodder necessary for a propaganda campaign in favor of war with the Soviet Union. Japanese War with the Soviet Union status rises to 3.

Nationalist China has no BRPs to buy impulse chits. Communist China buys her one chit and Japan buys two. Everyone else saves their BRPs.

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: The Netherlands spends 3 BRPs to put her 2 SURF unit out on patrol in the Sulu Sea and her 1-4 TAC in the Java Sea. Britain spends 5 BRPs for the usual patrols, but Japan keeps her units in port.

Declaration of War and Sea Control and Raiding Segments: Nobody declares war and no sea zones are contested.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: Nationalist China SRs a 1-2 INF unit back from the line to the provincial capital at Kweiyang. Communist China SRs a 1-2 INF back from the line to the border with Szechuan Province (whose capital is the Nationalist objective city of Chunking). The Soviet Union sends Mao 4 BRPs (2 get through), and then Britain spends all four of her SRs to bring two 1-0 GAR units from the Britain box to India using the 9 SURF in Bombay (which moves to Madras along with one of the 1-0 GARs). The U.S. SRs a 1-0 GAR to Hilo and a 3-4 TAC to Midway, and then sends Nationalist China 2 BRPs (one gets through). Japan SRs a 1-5 ARM division from Manchukuo south to just outside Canton, and then SRs two INF units from Japan to the beachhead on the south China coast.

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE KWAN HQ OFFENSIVE: The Japanese drive north to envelop the exposed flank of the much-shortened Kuomintang line and also mop up the sole survivors of the southern coastal defenders. The mop-up attack scores three hits on 10 dice and wipes out a fleeing 2-2 army, which scores one hit before dying and kills a Japanese BRP. The armies that attacked it drive north into Kweichow province, but the 3-3 army that was sent to attack the the provincial capital of Kweiyang fails to score any hits.

Then the final assault on Kweilin goes in, and Japanese air cover shoots down the last of the Kuomintang TAC, and the 12-die attack on the capital gets blitzkrieg bonuses due to combined ARM and TAC and scores five hits, wiping out the two GAR units and taking Kweilin. Another attack from the east smashes through the center of the line, and the south end of the Kuomintang line is now all but encircled. Then the 3-5 ARM unit that entered Kweilin uses exploitation movement to drive north and hit Kweiyang, where it scores one hit and wipes out the defenders to take the city and control of Kweichow Province.

Japan has scored a great victory, but the price to pay is the increase of the U.S. Entry Level to 7 and yet another U.S. Embargo chit going in the cup (Japan rolled a 2).
The next chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE ATTRITION: Japanese armies surround Mao’s isolated 2-2 army south of the Yangtse River and attack at 10 dice to 2, but they inflict just one hit and Mao’s brave men hold out (Communist China loses a BRP). They even score one hit in return and destroy a Japanese 1-3 army, giving themselves an escape route.

The last chit drawn is . . .

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: Mao lambastes the Nationalists with a fiery speech illuminating the folly of capitalism, and then tells the south end of his line to pull the hell back.

Supply and End Segments: The one saving grace for the Kuomintang is that all Chinese units are automatically in supply while in China (they’re very good at living off the land), so the surrounded armies southeast of Kweilin stay alive. But unfortunately, Japan’s capture of Kweilin and Kweiyang puts all of Japan’s units in supply with nothing between them and Chunking. All other nations’ units are in supply as well.
Units in sea control boxes return to port and play proceeds to . . .

Turn 6: Winter 1940

Production Segment: Japan receives 2 x 2 CV while the U.S. gets 4 CV in the West Coast box and Britain gets 2 CV in the Britain box (all purchased in the spring). The Soviet Union rolls a 6 for a standard Russian winter. Neither China can afford to build any new units (even the Communists have just 2 BRPs left and need that to buy an Attrition chit), but Britain spends 4 BRPs to build a 1 SURF to replace likely losses next year and the U.S. spends 16 BRPs on a 4 CV (both available Fall 1941). Japan builds a 5-8 SAC unit for 15 BRPs.

No new chits go in the cup, and the chit drawn is U.S. OIL EMBARGO. Japan loses 10 BRPs (leaving her with just 9), and her War With the United States status goes up to 7.
Japan buys two impulse chits and Communist China buys one, but everybody else saves their BRPs.

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment and Declaration of War Segment: Nobody has enough BRPs left to declare war on anybody, so nobody bothers to put units in sea zone boxes.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: Mao SRs another 1-2 INF unit back from the line to the border with Szechuan, and the Kuomintang break their own line and SR a 1-2 INF northwest to Chunking. The Netherlands keeps her units in place. The U.S. transfers her last four BRPs to Nationalist China (two get through) and with her new entry status of 7 she can do three more SRs so she sends a 2-4 MAR unit to Pearl Harbor, a 4 CV from Pearl Harbor to Manila and another 4 CV from the U.S. West Coast box to Pearl Harbor.

America’s provocative move of sending a carrier battlegroup to Manila (which could fight for control of the South China Sea and block Japanese invasions westward) causes Japan to declare the occupation of French Indo-China, which she can do at any time after Summer 1940 due to France’s fall. This causes all French forces in Indochina to disband, and it also increases the U.S. entry level by one to 8. Japan immediately SRs a 3-3 INF plus a 1-5 ARM division (along with the two LCs carrying them) plus a 5-4 TAC unit, a 4 CV and a 9 SURF to Saigon. She then sends a 1 LC from the south China coast beachhead to the Marshall Islands.

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is . . .

JAPAN ATTRITION: The northern Japanese armies advance and strike Mao’s south flank, hitting the last Communist army south of the Yangtse at 9 dice to 2 and destroying it with just one hit (because Communist China is at zero BRPs). But the brave Chinese score one hit before dying and kill a 1-3 Japanese army.

The next chit drawn is . . .

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: Mao pulls more units back to form the best defensive line he can on the north bank of the Yangtse, and hopes very hard that the Americans enter the war next turn and force Japan to start pulling armies out of northern China.

The last chit drawn is . . .

JAPANESE KWAN HQ OFFENSIVE: The Japanese armies in southern China move to mop up all resistance south of the Yangtse and establish the beginnings of the containment line on the south bank of the great river. All Kuomintang armies north and west of Kweilin are wiped out, but the hard core of what was the point of the Nationalist line southeast of Kweilin hold out.

A 1-3 INF unit moves west from the south coast beachhead to garrison Hanoi, and the 3-5 ARM unit uses all its movement (regular and exploitation) to drive west and capture both cities of Yunnan Province so the Kuomintang can’t build any new armies there and to take control of the province. Japan’s use of an HQ Offensive chit in China drives the U.S. Entry level up to 9, and that plus the fact that all Embargo chits are in the cup now all but guarantees that war will break out between the U.S. and Japan in 1941.

Supply Segment: All units are in supply.

End Segment: Japan has two BRPs left in her stockpile so she gets 2 x .3 = .6 rounded up to 1 BRP worth of economic growth permanently added to her BRP base (it would have been more had that last Embargo chit not been drawn). All other territories on the Pacific map except for China send their surplus to Europe and don’t get economic growth, and China is agrarian so she gets no economic growth either.

By the end of 1940, Japan has defeated the Kuomintang but is still mopping up some Nationalist armies that will likely hinder her plans to attack Hong Kong. The U.S. and Britain have begun moving forces into Hong Kong, Singapore and the Philippines, and America’s deployment of a 4 CV to Manila plus the fact that she can send more units to the Philippines at her new entry level of 9 means that the U.S. is fast developing a powerful threat right in Japan’s front yard. Japan’s occupation of Indochina and the deployment of an invasion force to Saigon means she’ll be able to contest the Gulf of Siam and invade either Malaya, Borneo or the Philippines, and her three other invasion forces at Shanghai, Kagoshima and the Marshall Islands have plenty of other targets they can strike.

Factors working against Japan are the fact that she still has the vast majority of her army in China, and that she will lose 45 BRPs in the Spring Production Segment due to the U.S. Embargoes against her (55 BRPs if another Embargo chit gets drawn). Japan may want to avoid declaring war on the U.S. right away in the spring so the U.S. has to spend 10 BRPs to ask Congress to declare war on Japan and then another 15 BRPs to actually declare war if she rolls 9 or less, and also to avoid the extra 20 BRP base bump that a Japanese declaration would give America. Or she may want to go ahead and declare war to pull off an early Pearl Harbor before America can deploy forces in sea control boxes.

Which way will the divine wind blow? Tune in next time and find out!

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